Skip to main content

Forecast Costs

Forecast Costs

Overview

The forecast costs tool allows you to forecast demand for services in the future. In this analysis demand is categorised into five primary measures

  • The number of service users
  • The total weekly cost
  • The number of domiciliary hours of care provided
  • The number of residential care beds required

The tool uses the concept of rings that categories service users' needs into rings that are defined in the Ring Definition

Demand Forecast combines information about the underlying population and statistics about how service users enter and transition through ASC services to predict future demand.

Demand is predicted in terms of the number of service users in each Ring. This is then combined with the average weekly cost of care for each Ring as input by the user to predict future costs.

Process - Forecast Demand

  1. To forecast future demand go to Forecast, Costs.

    • You will be presented with present day average ring costs. Input the future average costs of care for each Ring that you would like to use in the prediction. You could use the present day costs, or inflate/amend these as appropriate.
    • Choose "Forecast"

    image-20220117133039412

  2. You will be presented with Tables for all users and each Ring with data for each primary measure for now and years 1-5 in the future.

    image-20220203152058163

  3. You will also be presented with historical graphs showing the five primary measures.

    image-20220203152142345